In a Food Curious world, we don’t see food as just sustenance, nor as isolated ingredients on a plate. We see food as part of a much bigger picture — a lens through which we can understand the world we live in.

At the moment, most of us are aware of the war unfolding in the Middle East — involving Iran, the GCC, and the broader region — and many of us feel a certain unease about what it could mean. One of the most immediate ways global conflicts tend to reach our daily lives is through the cost of energy, and in turn, through the cost of food.

No matter where you live in the world, there is a strong chance that by the end of this year you will notice changes in food prices. Today I’m going to discuss food in general—not just vegan ingredients—because energy costs affect the entire food system, from grains and vegetables to meat, dairy, and processed foods. I’ll be exploring this through the lens of France, where I am currently based, though many of the dynamics apply far beyond it.

Food has always been tied to energy. Long before modern economics existed, societies understood that the price of fuel — whether wood, coal, or oil — shapes how food is grown, how it moves, and ultimately what ends up on our plates. Iran has stated that it aims to push oil to around USD $200 per barrel. As I write this today, oil is sitting at roughly $100 per barrel for Brent crude (the global benchmark) and about $98–$99 for WTI crude (the U.S. benchmark).

If oil were to reach $200 per barrel, France would certainly feel the effects. But the story is far more nuanced than simple panic about rising food prices. The goal here is not to create fear, but to understand how food connects to global events.

Oil touches nearly every step of the modern food system. It powers the tractors that harvest wheat, the trucks that transport vegetables across regions, the ships that bring coffee and spices across oceans, and the refrigeration systems that keep dairy and meat safe during transport. When energy prices rise sharply, these costs ripple through the entire supply chain. Yet not all foods respond in the same way.

Take the humble baguette. Today, a traditional baguette might cost around €1.10 in many parts of France. If oil were to reach $200 per barrel, it might rise to something closer to €1.40 or €1.70. Bread rarely doubles in price during energy shocks because transportation is only a small part of its cost. Flour, labor, and rent dominate the economics of a bakery. The baguette remains one of the most resilient foods in the French diet.

Where we would likely see more noticeable increases is in foods that rely heavily on industrial systems. Meat and dairy, for example, depend on large networks of feed production, refrigeration, transport, and mechanized agriculture. Higher oil prices mean higher costs for feeding livestock, transporting products across the country, and maintaining cold chains. During periods of energy stress, beef, chicken, milk, and cheese tend to rise faster than plant-based foods.

Imported foods would also feel the pressure. Coffee, chocolate, avocados, tropical fruits, spices — these ingredients often travel thousands of kilometers before reaching a French kitchen. When shipping costs rise, the price tags eventually follow. The same is true for many processed foods, which depend on energy-intensive factories, petroleum-based packaging, and complex distribution networks.

This is also where ultra-processed foods (UPFs) enter the picture. Whether vegan or non-vegan, these products depend heavily on industrial systems that are deeply tied to energy. Frozen meals, packaged snacks, soft drinks, ready-to-eat meals, and many supermarket convenience foods require large factories, complex ingredient supply chains, refrigeration, and extensive packaging—often made from petroleum derivatives. When oil prices rise sharply, every step of that process becomes more expensive.

The same dynamic applies to a growing category of ultra-processed vegan products, such as plant-based meats, vegan cheeses, and highly engineered dairy alternatives. Many of these rely on imported oils, protein isolates, stabilizers, and emulsifiers that travel through multiple industrial stages before becoming a finished product. While these foods can play a role in modern diets, they are often far more sensitive to energy shocks than simple plant ingredients like lentils, beans, grains, nuts, and vegetables. In other words, the distinction that matters most during periods of high energy prices is not necessarily vegan versus non-vegan—but whole foods versus highly industrialized ones.

Yet there is an interesting counterbalance. The foods that remain the most stable during energy shocks are often the foods that have defined traditional cooking for centuries: seasonal vegetables, potatoes, lentils, beans, cabbage, and locally grown grains. These ingredients move through shorter supply chains and require less industrial processing. They remind us that resilience in the food system often lies in simplicity.

France, in fact, has one of the strongest agricultural bases in Europe. The country is the largest agricultural producer in the European Union, responsible for roughly 18% of total EU agricultural production.¹ Wheat, dairy, wine, sugar beets, fruits, and vegetables remain core pillars of the French agricultural landscape. This means that many staple ingredients—bread grains, root vegetables, dairy products—are still produced domestically.

However, the picture is more complex than simply “local food.” When it comes to fruits and vegetables, almost half of what is consumed in France is imported, often to complement domestic production or to provide produce outside the local growing season.² And because France is part of the European Union’s single market, much of this trade happens within Europe itself. Countries such as Spain and Italy play a crucial role in feeding the continent, supplying tomatoes, peppers, citrus, zucchini, and other Mediterranean crops to northern markets, often within 24–48 hours of harvest.

Spain in particular has become Europe’s powerhouse for fruits and vegetables, producing more than one-fifth of the EU’s fresh produce, with highly efficient greenhouse and logistics systems that supply supermarkets across the continent.³ This means that when French consumers buy tomatoes in winter or strawberries early in the season, they are often eating produce grown in southern Spain or Italy.

What this tells us is something important: the French food system is both deeply local and deeply European at the same time. Many staples are produced domestically, but the everyday diversity of fruits and vegetables depends on an interconnected regional network across the EU. When energy prices rise, the foods traveling the longest distances—especially imported produce or highly processed products—tend to feel the impact first. By contrast, foods rooted closer to the land and to the seasons remain the most stable.

In that sense, resilience in food culture has always followed the same time tested rule: the closer a dish is to the soil beneath our feet, the more protected it tends to be from the turbulence of the world beyond it.

In summary, here’s what to expect if oil reaches $200 per barrel:

• Bread and staple foods: modest increases (a baguette may move from ~€1.10 to around €1.40–€1.70).
• Meat and dairy: among the most affected due to feed, refrigeration, and transport costs.
• Imported foods: noticeable increases for products like coffee, chocolate, tropical fruits, spices, and avocados.
• Processed foods: higher prices because of energy-intensive manufacturing and petroleum-based packaging. This includes vegan UPFs like faux cheeses and faux meats.
• Local seasonal produce: likely to remain the most stable and affordable.
• Consumer habits: more home cooking, slightly less meat consumption, and a renewed focus on simple, seasonal ingredients.

Perhaps this is the deeper lesson: food is never separate from the world. It is geography, politics, climate, culture, and energy — all arriving quietly on a plate.

#stayfoodcurious

Footnotes:

¹ France is the largest agricultural producer in the European Union, accounting for roughly 18% of total EU agricultural output, with major sectors including cereals, dairy, wine, sugar beets, fruits, and vegetables. Source: French Ministry of Agriculture (Agreste), Key Figures of French Agriculture.

² Nearly half of the fruits and vegetables consumed in France are imported, particularly outside the domestic growing season, reflecting the country’s integration within the European food market. Source: Interfel / French fruit and vegetable sector economic reports.

³ Spain produces more than 20% of the European Union’s fruits and vegetables and serves as a major supplier of fresh produce to northern European markets through highly developed greenhouse and logistics systems. Source: European Commission agricultural statistics; EU fruit and vegetable market reports.